Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan are now virtually tied in the Oregon governor’s race, all due to the mere existence of spoiler candidate Betsy Johnson.
I recently wrote about Johnson’s motivation for running, considering she served in the legislature for twenty consecutive years as a Democrat. She certainly knew she would cause trouble for Kotek. My article offers some possible explanations. (Hint: money is involved.)
Nevertheless, Democrats can still win this election, but they must not give into their penchant for over-thinking their vote and hurting their own candidate in the process.
History has not been kind to Democrats who have done so.
In 2000, Ralph Nader ran for President as a third-party candidate. There is no doubt his candidacy cost the Democrats the White House. The margin of victory in Florida was about 500 votes. Democrats over-analyzed their way to giving Nader almost 100,000 Florida votes. Without Nader in the race, Al Gore would have been President.
In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein helped give the White House to Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton was not the most likeable of candidates to be sure. Democrats once again put on their thinking caps, and many decided to stay home or vote for Stein. The muted Democratic turnout combined with Stein’s vote drain did the trick for Trump.
The first thing Democrats need to do is realize the obvious: the Oregon governor’s race is far from hopeless for Democrats. Oregon is a very blue state, and it can easily overcome any vote drain to Johnson.
To do so, Democrats need to absorb their own culpability in the party’s presidential losses in 2000 and 2016, and not repeat those mistakes.
Just two simple things are needed from Democrats. Vote. And vote for Democrat Tina Kotek. It’s not that hard. Stop looking for reasons not to be a Democrat.
Like Hillary Clinton, Tina Kotek is not the most likeable candidate. In the legislature, she had a reputation for being tough and demanding. She made enemies. But here’s a news flash. Politics is a contact sport. If you want to get things done, you need to push hard. She pushed and she has a long list of accomplishments to show for it.
A tough woman might rub some Democrats the wrong way. But right now, Oregon really needs a demanding governor. Kate Brown was far too tolerant of incompetence within state government. This resulted in multiple instances where millions were either wasted or didn’t get out the door in a timely way. Kotek will not be nearly so tolerant.
And this year, more than ever, a Democrat must become Oregon governor to protect Oregon women’s right to choose.
After the Supreme Court overturned Roe, Drazan quickly scrubbed all mention of women’s reproductive rights from her website. She has lamely stated she would “follow the law”. She even used the exact term that Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett used to lie their way to the Supreme Court: “settled law”.
Don’t be fooled.
Opposition to a woman’s right to choose is embedded in the DNA of every Republican politician. Handed the governorship, and emboldened by Roe’s nullification, Drazan will be ideologically incapable of keeping her hands off the abortion issue.
You might ask what she could do if the legislature remains in Democratic control. Keep in mind that the governor has broad executive powers. Despite Oregon’s strong law affirming a woman’s right to choose, it’s not bullet-proof. A Governor Drazan could, through executive orders, do real damage to Oregon women’s right to choose.
She has promised not to touch it in her “first term”. This alone should send a chill through all Democrats. But it would be surprising if she didn’t start attacking a women’s right to choose in her first month as governor.
She has already stated she does not support public funding for abortion procedures. Women who are public employees or on the Oregon Health Plan would not have insurance coverage for abortion care if Drazan gets her way. If it’s possible to sign an executive order banning such coverage, she will do it and do it quickly. That would leave hundreds of thousands of Oregon women without access to affordable care.
So, my message to Democrats is this. No candidate is perfect. Waiting for the ideal Democrat has cost you dearly. Learn that lesson. You may find reasons not to like Tina Kotek. Great. You’ve done your research! Just know that if you wish to be so pure you cannot vote for the Democrat, you pave the way for a Governor Christine Drazan.
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