Betsy Johnson’s candidacy for Oregon governor is one of the more puzzling events in an election year already filled with weirdness. Johnson is a long-time Democrat. Without her on the ballot, Tina Kotek would undoubtedly be cruising to a win on November 8. Now the race is a toss-up between Kotek and Republican candidate Christine Drazan.

Here are some possible explanations for why Johnson chose to run.

She thinks she has enough appeal to win.

She could be thinking that Oregon is longing to return to a time back in the mist of history when Republicans and Democrats could actually work together. She envisions herself as the great uniter. No matter that the unity train left the station fifty years ago. She’s the one to do it!

This explanation requires a level of naivete that Johnson almost certainly does not possess. She served twenty consecutive years in the Oregon legislature and ran Ron Wyden’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2004.  She is undoubtedly very clear-eyed of the state of politics in Oregon and around the country. A message of unity might sound good, but that’s about the last thing voters believe can be achieved now, and she almost certainly knows this.

She really, really dislikes Tina Kotek

This is the Kamikaze theory of Johnson’s candidacy. She wants Kotek to lose so badly she is willing to install the first Republican in the governor’s office in decades.

During the recent televised debate, we saw a flash of Johnson’s disdain for Kotek when the moderator asked each candidate which of their opponents they admired the most. Johnson sarcastically chose Kotek for “elevating the unbridled use of power to an art form to get what she wants”.

Politicians certainly can be vindictive. Some will say it is a requirement for the job. So this explanation is plausible, but it still leaves me puzzled why Johnson would risk handing the governor’s office to Drazan.

Johnson’s candidacy was cooked up by big money Republicans to elect a Republican governor.

This is the “useful idiot” theory. Somehow Johnson allowed herself to be sucked into the Republican money machine. They stroked her ego, promised big campaign contributions, and convinced her she could win as an independent.

A wealthy Democrat with long-time ties to big business, Johnson was ideal for this role.

Phil Knight kicked things off with a substantial campaign contribution early on to fund the signature gathering required to get her on the ballot. Once Johnson was on the ballot, Knight continued with very large contributions, all but assuring Johnson would not drop out. As of early October, his total to Johnson was a staggering $3.75 million. By contrast, he has given Christine Drazan “only” $1 million.

We won’t know until after the election which of these theories is most plausible. But watch what becomes of Betsy Johnson after the election. If she lands in a mega-donor’s orbit, or if she is offered a plum appointment in the Drazan administration (all in the name of “bi-partisanship”, of course), it’s very likely Johnson was used by big money to install a Republican governor. It would go down in Oregon history as the biggest corruption of the political process by big money ever.

But it didn’t have to be this way.

I recently wrote about the Oregon legislature’s failure to pass campaign finance reform after the huge voter mandate in 2020. Politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, undoubtedly wanted just one more election with virtually no limits on campaign contributions. If Democrats lose the governorship due to record-setting amounts poured into the contest by the likes of Phil Knight, they will have a lot to think about the next four years. Perhaps then they will act with more urgency to pass the reform the voters have waited three years for.